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March 13, 2001

CONSULTING CLIENTS

WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT SUPPORT BREAKS!

MARKETS HAVE BOUNCED MINIMALLY OFF ANY NORMAL SUPPORT AREAS

THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THE DJIA HAS BEEN DOWN OVER 250 THAT IT DIDN’T RALLY AFTER

THE BONDS CLOSE AT 3:00 PM. WE MUST CONSIDER THIS AN EXTREMELY BAD SIGN!!!

Maybe the Plunge Protection Team is on strike because they didn’t like the election outcome!~

The slow and steady erosion, without capitulation, is accelerating into a possible climax over the next 1-2 days. The situation HAS become immediately critical!

Often when the market peaks short term one or two days before a Full Moon, and the FM date is a large down, a low tends to occur 5 calendar days after the Full Moon. That would be Wednesday +/- 1 day.

As with all things Market, the exceptions can really get you! Such was the Full Moon of Oct. 6, 1987, 2 or 3 days after the North Ridge, CA earthquake (is That the cue?) which was the largest price decline ever in DJIA points, but just began the slide leading to the crash on the 19^th (day after option expiry).

So far, market internals remain positive long term, with NYSE Advance-Decline Line very positive and New Highs far outdistancing New Lows, a configuration typical of Bull Markets! Even the NASDAQ New Lows have contracted from 788 at the December low to only 304 on Monday, an internal failure to confirm the damage in price!

RYDEX Money Market Fund as a percent of total fund assets is now The Highest level on our 3 _ year record, usually (at least) an intermediate market low. Their Bear Funds investors percentage broke out above a 2 _ year base to the highest totals since October ’99! These numbers suggest that we are fast approaching an important Low, but cannot be considered Bullish until they stop Rising and begin to decline from these historic peaks. An unwinding of these exalted positions will lead to much higher markets once the turn is more obviously past.

ARMS or TRIN at 3.42 yesterday is the highest daily reading since April 4, 2000, but the 10-day arithmetic mean has not been above here since 1998. We must go back to 1997 to find a more excessive 21-day Average!

SEVERAL CYCLISTS HAVE POTENTIAL TURN DATES TODAY (MARCH 13) +/- ONE DAY.

THERE MAY WELL BE ADDITIONAL RETESTS OF LOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF POSITIVE ASTRONOMICS AFTER THE EQUINOX ON MARCH 20. OUR NEWSLETTER POSITIONS HAVE BEEN STOPPED OUT. WE RECOMMEND ACCUMULATION OF NEW TRADING POSITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND INVESTMENT POSITIONS ON ANY SUBSEQUENT RETEST. SPREAD THE BUYING PERIOD TO INCLUDE POSSIBLE CATASTROPHIC INCIDENTS UNTIL THE 20^TH.

Arch Crawford
Crawford Perspectives

(Sent to consulting clients during the trading day on March 13, 2001)